Towards the end of February, the Gallup/EFB roadshow passed through Tirana and Skopje. In Tirana, the event was organized jointly with the European Movement in Albania and the Albanian School of Political Studies. Robert Manchin, Gallup Europe’s CEO, presented the Albanian results which showed that while its citizens were satisfied with their standard of living (54%) and the EU (88%), most respondents saw more opportunities abroad (64%).
After EFB Executive Director Hedvig Morvai-Horvat had introduced the panel, Selim Belortaja, Albania’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, recognised the importance of the surveys on public perceptions and expressed his satisfaction with the fact that most Albanians believed the country was moving in the right direction. He claimed that while many respondents seemed to be interested in leaving the country, many Albanians regularly returned. Despite the survey indicating that support for Greater Albania had risen compared to 2006 (to 71%), Thomas von Handel, head of the Political, Economic and Information Section in the EU Delegation, argued that there was no serious political debate on this topic in Albania. He was personally pleased with the high support that the EU was enjoying in the country.
In Skopje, the presentation of results showed that citizens were seriously worried about Macedonia’s economic situation. Two-thirds of unemployed Macedonians did not feel they would be able to find a job in the next 12 months, which made them the most pessimistic in the region. Over 70% of respondents stated they had problems in getting by with household income.
Commenting on the decline in the belief that EU accession was a good thing, EU Delegation representative in Macedonia, Erwan Fouéré, stated that perceptions in the Balkans were never static and that included views about the EU. On the naming dispute (the survey had shown that respondents were getting impatient with the country’s leaders), Fouéré said that this had been a problem for too long, and its resolution would help Euro-Atlantic integration in the country. This view was supported by MP Ermira Mehmeti Devaja who argued that the issue had overshadowed important problems in Macedonian society such as politicised administration, corruption and a low standard of living. The Institute of Sociological and Political Research’s Mirjana Malevska quoted results from her institution’s survey which showed that the dire economic situation could lead to the radicalisation of some segments of the population, and especially those worst hit by the crisis.

On February 18, the Gallup Europe and European Fund for the Balkans roadshow stopped off in Podgorica for an event entitled “Montenegro and the EU: Government knows best”. Gallup Europe CEO Robert Manchin presented the latest Gallup Balkan Monitor survey results; they showed that roughly half of Montenegrins (48%) thought that the government’s performance was excellent or good. This was despite the fact that only 37% were satisfied with their material situation (down from 45% in 2008). The results also showed that almost half (47%) of Montenegrins now felt the country was going in a bad direction (up from 29% in 2008) and only 31% felt the economy was improving (down from 49%). Finally, just under a quarter of Montenegrins (23%) felt that ‘petty’ corruption might be more useful than harmful – the highest figure in the Western Balkans.
Following an introduction by EFB Programme Manager Igor Bandovic, a lively debate ensued. Miodrag-Misko Vukovic, Head of the International and European Relations Committee of the Montenegrin Parliament, agued that the survey results showed that Montenegro was a stable, tolerant, and politically mature society; one in which its citizens did not change their opinions easily. Many problems that Montenegro faced, including such corruption, he added, were shared by other European countries, but were just more visible in Montenegro due to its small size. Daliborka Uljarevic, Director of the Centre for Civic Education, however, believed that the survey results were an expression of the authorities’ fear and Montenegrin citizens’ lack of education. According to Uljarevic, the Government did not have the courage to go through with the necessary painful reforms and the electorate felt the same way; both groups appeared to be happy with the situation. The CEMI Monitoring Centre’s Zlatko Vujovic, however, argued that Montenegrin and Kosovar citizens appeared to be the most positive because they were the least open in their responses about the Government.

On the second anniversary of Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia, a look at the latest Gallup Balkan Monitor results showed Kosovo Albanians as being less positive toward independence. Seventy-five percent of Kosovo Albanians said independence was a good thing, down from 93% who said so in 2008. One in five Kosovo Albanians said they did not have an opinion. Furthermore, 80% of Kosovo Serbs believed that independence was a bad thing, statistically unchanged since 2008.
Despite being less positive that Kosovo’s independence was a good thing, almost half (48%) of Kosovo Albanians said things in the country were going in a good direction. Hardly any Kosovo Serbs agreed with that (2% vs. 86% who disagreed). The proportion of Kosovo Albanians who said the country was going in a good direction is among the highest in the Western Balkan region. Some of the lowest proportions were seen in Croatia (8%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (16%), and Serbia (21%).
Looking to the future, a large majority of Kosovo Albanians and Serbs said they would not be ready to accept a division of Kosovo with the Serbian territory joining Serbia as part of the final peace settlement. Such a solution would not be acceptable to 94% of Kosovo Albanians and 82% of Kosovo Serbs. More than 1 in 10 Kosovo Serbs (12%) said they could accept such a division.
While 65 United Nations member states have recognized Kosovo’s independence, 80% of Kosovo Serbs said Serbia would never accept this. Furthermore, almost two-thirds (64%) of Serbian respondents said Serbia would never recognize such independence.

In early February, the Gallup Europe and European Fund for the Balkans roadshow reached Sarajevo for an event that focused on visa liberalisation: “a chance that should not be missed”. Before an expectant audience, EFB programme manager Igor Bandovic introduced the panel and Gallup research analyst Andrzej Pyrka presented the GBM results for BiH including the findings that almost half of BiH citizens (47%) felt that visa liberalisation divided the Western Balkans and that over three-quarters (78%) of those citizens would like to continue living in the country.
With TV Hayat’s Adnan Rondić moderating the panel discussion, Nedeljko Masleša, assistant director of the Directorate of EU Integration, quoted his own survey that showed that just a third of BiH citizens were sufficiently well-informed about the EU. Vehid Šehić, director of the Forum of Tuzla Citizens, was critical; he suggested that BiH citizens should make their own politicians deliver results – on issues such as visa liberalisation – rather than be continually turning towards Brussels for assistance. Faruk Borić, editor of the Oslobođenje newspaper said he would prefer visa liberalisation to be granted to BiH after the October general election so that none of those same politicians could claim it as their personal success.
The event concluded with an animated Q&A session where several of the audience’s fears were aired. It was suggested that the EU was biased against Muslims in their visa liberalisation decisions and that such liberalisation could lead to a real exodus from the country. The panel held firm however, arguing that neither of those theories held any credence.

The Gallup Europe and European Fund for the Balkans roadshow – this time in cooperation with the Academy for Political Development – reached Zagreb on Thursday, January 21; a lively debate – introduced by EFB Executive Director Hedvig Morvai-Horvat and moderated by Croatian journalist Neven Santic – ensued around the subject of Croatia’s lack of enthusiasm as it approached the goal of EU membership. Indeed, the latest Gallup Balkan Monitor survey results, presented at the event by Gallup Europe CEO Robert Manchin, had shown Croats to be some of the West Balkans’ gloomiest citizens. The audience – including ambassadors, representatives of civil society and government, and EFB Alumni network members – then heard short introductions by EFB Executive Director, Hedvig Morvai-Horvat, Executive Director of the Academy for Political Development, Nevena Crljenko and Head of Delegation of the EU to the Republic of Croatia, Paul Vandoren. Drawing on his experience in Croatia, Vandoren argued that Croatian scepticism – as shown in the GBM results – had to be viewed in the context of the global economic crisis. Professor, Faculty of Law, Zagreb, Josip Kregar, was surprised that the survey results indicated that a high number of Croats wanted to stay in the country (75% would certainly or probably be in the country in 12 months time) despite the fact that Croatia was seen to be heading in a bad direction (84% agreed). Srdjan Dvornik, Publicist, discussed reasons why Croats might be dissatisfied and also looked at how the survey showed potential for development in several areas.

On January 10, Ivo Josipovic, a law professor and composer, was elected President of Croatia. He will take office in February. One of Josipovic’s main platforms was his pledge to fight corruption and organised crime and this has obviously appealed to the voters. Indeed, the latest Balkan Monitor figures showed that 92% of Croats believed that there was widespread corruption in business (up from 83% in 2006). This figure was the highest in the Balkans.
On the subject of neighbourly relations in the region, Serbia recently filed a lawsuit against Croatia accusing its government of committing genocide in the 1991-1995 Balkan War. This was in response to a similar suit filed by Croatia against Serbia in 1999, also in the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Interestingly, President-elect Josipovic (one of the key figures in Croatia’s original lawsuit) is now saying that there may be a way for both suits to be dropped. This feeling is in line with survey results that showed 51% of Croats saying that neighbourly ties were not strong enough, up from 43% in 2008.

Just before Christmas, Serb President Boris Tadić submitted his country’s application to be granted EU candidate status. This application came at a time when just 50% of Serbs thought that joining the EU would be a good thing. This figure was down from 58% in 2008. One reason could be that Serbs do not feel well informed about the EU: only 44% said they well (or very well) informed about the Union – the lowest figure in the Balkans except for Montenegro (40%). Furthermore, 19% of Serbs thought that the EU was hostile towards their country, a figure that was the highest in the Balkans by far. Despite all this, over two-thirds (69%) said they would say ‘yes’ if a referendum was held about joining the EU.

Croatia’s fifth presidential elections will be held on December 27, 2009. With the incumbent president, Stjepan Mesić, not being eligible to run for office as he has served two consecutive terms, the results could bring surprises.
The latest Gallup Balkan Monitor results showed that 70% of Croats plan to attend the presidential elections; this compares to an official voting figure of 50.57% in the 2005 elections. It looks certain to be a close-run affair as 47% of respondents told the Gallup Balkan Monitor that they did not know (or would not say) who they planned to vote for and no single candidate stood out from the rest in terms of popularity.
The elections will arrive at a time when the survey results showed Croats to be some of the region’s gloomiest citizens. A majority of respondents (57%) said they were dissatisfied with their standard of living – 16 percentage points up from the numbers feeling that way in 2006. Furthermore, many citizens were unhappy about the future; despite being one of the region’s countries closest to EU accession, it had more citizens thinking that their country was going in a bad direction than any other country in the region.

Whatever happens in the election, people will be expecting improvements – at the time of the 2009 survey, Croats’ confidence in their national government was the lowest in the region (just 22% had a lot or some confidence in it). Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor had the lowest approval rating in the region and 85% described the government’s performance as poor – the region’s highest such rating. This contrasted sharply with the feelings about incumbent President Mesić – who had 56% of respondents saying that they had a lot or some confidence in him.
If no candidate obtains over 50% of the votes in the first round of the election, a second round will be held on 10 January 2010.

Fourteen years after the Dayton Agreement (December 14, 1995), the Balkan Monitor results show that the two entities – the (Muslim-Croat) Federation and Republika Srpska – are still divided. The latest Gallup Balkan Monitor results show that over a third (35%) of Federation citizens now believe that Kosovo’s independence has set a precedent for Bosnia’s future; this is a 12 percentage point increase over 2008. The views of those in Republika Srpska have not changed in the past 12 months, with 43% resolutely thinking that Kosovo’s independence does indeed set such a precedent. So, 14 years on from the Dayton Agreement, almost 4 in 10 people in Bosnia (39%) foresee Bosnia and Herzegovina falling apart, along the lines of Serbia and Kosovo.

Interestingly, more people of both the Federation and Republika Srpska now feel that the international community has been helpful in the past 15-20 years. Almost half (48%) in the Federation feel that way (up three percentage points from 2008) and they are supported by 21% of those in Republika Srpska (+ 3 points). Perhaps this is linked to the feeling that Kosovo’s independence has indeed showed a way forward (or rather, two ways forward) for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

As for views about the individual international organisations, people from the Federation are now much more likely to have an opinion than they were in 2006. At that time, roughly one in five would not give an opinion (would not or could not say) on the subject. In 2009, the “don’t know” camp had decreased considerably and many more are now neutral about the international organisations. Overall, though, the EU is most liked, with 56% feeling friendly towards the Union. Hostility has increased towards NATO (13%, up seven percentage points from 2006) and the UN (9%, +5 points). As for the respondents in the Republika Srpska, they are much less friendly towards the international organisations. However, only NATO now attracts more hostility than in 2006 (38%, +3 points). Both the UN and the EU now attract more neutral opinions (51%, +11 points, and 42%, +4 points) respectively. It should also be noted that, as opposed to the Federation, the numbers in the Republika Srpska not giving an opinion (would not or could not say) has actually increased – up to roughly one in five for all three organisations.

Moving from Bosnia to the bigger picture of the Western Balkans, it is perhaps surprising – given the above figures for Bosnia & Herzegovina – that numbers feeling that the international organisations have been helpful in the past 15-20 years are decreasing for the region in total. Forty two percent of respondents across the region now think that the international organisations have been helpful, down four percentage points from 2008. In contrast, 15% feel their influence has been harmful – up 2 points from 2008.

As of December 19, 2009, citizens of Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia have been able to travel without a visa to countries of the Schengen area and to those countries (Bulgaria, Romania and Cyprus) that respect the Schengen acquis.
This decision has obviously not been welcomed by respondents in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo and Albania (Croats have already been able to travel freely in the Schengen area). When asked who they blamed for the exclusion from this relaxation of visa restrictions of some Balkan countries, Kosovars blamed the EU (51% said it was the Union’s fault) while Albanians and Bosnians put the blame on their governments and politicians (59% and 51%, respectively).
The survey also showed that close to half of Bosnians (47%) and Kosovars (45%) felt that the decisions on visa liberalisation would create unnecessary divisions across the Western Balkan region. Indeed, there have been media reports that the decisions will treat Muslims unfairly as, for example, Bosnian Croats and Serbs will be able to benefit through their dual nationality, while Bosnian Muslims will have no such freedom. In the same way, Kosovars will not be able to travel freely whereas Serbs can now do so throughout the Schengen area.
Over a third of Bosnians (35%) even felt that visa liberalisation might contribute to the disintegration of BiH. A similar number also thought that the decision to leave out Albania, BiH and Kosovo from the current visa liberalization process was their predominantly Muslim populations; this view was only shared, however, by 29% of Kosovars and 26% of Albanians.
When the survey asked what single biggest assistance the international community could provide to their country, over one-third of respondents in most countries chose travel and visa liberalisation. People in the Bosnian Federation and Albania were especially eager to be able to travel freely: over half of these respondents demanded such help from the international community (54% and 53% respectively). The current rules, however, exclude both these communities from any relaxation of visa restrictions.
Looking at the bigger picture, it is clear that divisions now exist between the various countries of the region in terms of citizens’ ability to travel freely. Returning, therefore, to the Gallup Balkan Monitor results, it should not be forgotten that freer travel was placed number one on the list of expected benefits from EU accession for every country in the Western Balkans.

 

In cooperation with the European Policy Centre (EPC) and the European Fund for the Balkans, the results of the 2009 Balkan Monitor survey were presented by Gallup Europe at a Policy Dialogue entitled “In Europe we trust? Public opinion in the Balkans” on Tuesday 17 November 2009 in Brussels. An attentive audience of around 200 policymakers, academics and journalists heard about the bleak situation in the Western Balkans: people in most countries of the region see their countries moving in a bad direction and are pessimistic about their future living standards. The EPC’s Rosa Balfour chaired an animated panel discussion. While Gallup Europe’s Managing Director Robert Manchin described the survey results as an “early warning” for policymakers, Italy’s Former-Prime Minister Giuliano Amato called for action at EU level and expressed hope that visa liberalisation would be the next step in the Balkan enlargement process instead of the final one. Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev spoke of an imminent “implosion” of Western Balkan societies and called for a rapid EU integration of the region. Serbian journalist and Brussels correspondent Zelijko Pantelic did nothing to lighten the mood; he described the difficult situation for outspoken media in the region and claimed that the situation had been worsening in recent years.

The key findings of the 2009 Balkan Monitor survey have been summarised in a “Summary of Findings 2009” document – available for download here. Robert Manchin’s presentation can be found here

International observers who monitored the Kosovo elections have said that they met “many” international standards. Darko Aleksov, head of the ENEMO (European Network of Election Monitoring Organizations) mission said “The municipal and mayoral elections in the Republic of Kosovo met many of the international standards for elections”. ENEMO deployed more than 100 observers throughout Kosovo during the vote. Aleksov added that “the campaign was conducted in a peaceful and dynamic manner only disturbed by isolated cases of misconduct in its last week.”

When the latest Gallup Balkan Monitor poll asked about previous elections, 24% of Kosovo Serbs said they had voted compared to 71% of Kosovo Albanians. Now, media reports say that in some areas, “turnout by ethnic Serbs appeared to be close to zero” (Sofia Echo). In terms of the honesty of elections, the poll showed that two-thirds (65%) of Kosovo Albanians thought that elections were conducted with (a lot or some) honesty; the corresponding figure for Kosovo Serbs was 21%. No Kosovo Serbs thought that elections were undertaken with a lot of honesty. As for whether people should vote in elections in order to be a good Kosovo national, almost two-thirds of Kosovo Albanians agreed with that statement, while over 70% of Kosovo Serbs thought that it was either not essential or that it did not matter.

The European Policy Centre, in cooperation with the European Fund for the Balkans, is hosting a Policy Dialogue on “In Europe we trust? Public opinion in the Balkans” (see here for the programme of the event) on Tuesday 17 November 2009 in Brussels. The latest results of the Gallup Balkan Monitor will be released and presented by Robert Manchin on this occasion. Please register directly with the EPC by faxing the reply form completed.

The European Policy Centre, in cooperation with the European Fund for the Balkans, is hosting a Policy Dialogue on “In Europe we trust? Public opinion in the Balkans” on Tuesday 17 November 2009 – 14.00 at the Résidence Palace (call 02 734 54 18 for details). The latest results of the Gallup Balkan Monitor public opinion surveys find that while citizens in the Western Balkans support accession to the EU, they are not inspired by their own national governments and political parties. What these findings say about the prospects for the EU accession process and political developments in the region will be discussed at the “Policy Dialogue” event. With Robert Manchin, CEO of Gallup Europe, Giuliano Amato, former Prime Minister of Italy and former Chairman of the International Commission on the Balkans, Ivan Krastev, Chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, Sofia, and Zeljko Pantelic, Journalist, Dnevnik newspaper correspondent in Brussels. The dialogue will be chaired by Rosa Balfour, EPC Senior Policy Analyst.

The GBM’s Focus On: EU Perceptions – the second in the series – shows that although there is a high level of support for the EU, it is slowly decreasing. BiH has seen the strongest drop, with 48% of its respondents considering EU accession to be “a good thing” – a drop of 18 percentage points. The report also illustrates that Albania and Kosovo not only have the highest levels of support for EU accession, but that the EU is also among the most trusted institutions in those countries. Furthermore, this latest ‘Focus’ report reveals that people in all of the Western Balkans countries – except for Croatia – have high expectations about the EU’s reforming powers; they believe that EU integration will bring improvements in most societal domains, such as the rule of law, security and national welfare. The full report can be found here.

With “visa liberalisation” being firmly on the Commission’s agenda for July, Gallup Europe hosted an event, on 25 June, that examined the impact of migration on the Western Balkans and its citizens. A full house of policymakers, journalists and analysts were at Gallup House in Brussels to hear Robert Manchin, Gallup Europe’s Managing Director, present a range of results and conclusions from the Gallup Balkan Monitor surveys. Topics covered included:

• the high rates of migration within the Albanian communities in the Balkans, coupled with high numbers of Albanian returnees.
• the dissatisfaction with their personal life felt by many people in the Western Balkans.
• discontent felt particularly by the under-25s with one-third saying that, given the choice, they would leave the region.
• half of those Bosnians who indicted a wish to migrate saying they would not be returning.

The event was attended by the Bosnian Head of Mission to the EU and a number of Commission officials with responsibilities in the region. Click here to see an interview that Manchin gave to South East Europe TV (SEETV) after the event.
Many of the results highlighted in Manchin’s presentation can be found in the GBM’s Focus On Migration. This is the second in a series of reports looking at the major issues that impact the Western Balkans. The report concluded that mass migration is unlikely and that, across the Western Balkans, the free movement of people between countries is seen as one of the most important pre-requisites to peace and development: 85% of people find it to be necessary. Only putting an end to corruption was mentioned more frequently. The full report can be found here and the presentation here.

The brochure “Western Balkans: How residents view their local authorities” shows the results of a collaboration between the Council of European Municipalities and Regions (CEMR), Gallup and the Network of Associations of Local Authorities in South Eastern Europe (NALAS). It summarises findings relevant to local governments in the Western Balkans, collected in the latest wave of the Gallup Balkan Monitor. This new publication reveals some of the survey’s main findings; such as which cities are considered to be the best for starting a business and that almost three-quarters (72%) of people in the Western Balkans are satisfied with their towns. A report with a more detailed analysis of the results is scheduled for publication in the autumn. See here for more details.

Following the successful GBM road show, the team made presentations to staff of the European Commssion’s Enlargement Directorate-General and the EU Council of Ministers’ working group that assembles Balkan experts from all member states. The GBM’s strength is that it clarifies a complex picture and Gallup’s Robert Manchin pointed out that the first survey in 1989 had already indicated regional and ethnic diversity. With a focus on how the Western Balkan residents perceived Brussels, the EU and other international actors, both presentations led to many questions about the data and the survey methodology. In conclusion, the sessions were thought to be extremely useful for the work of both DG Enlargement and the Council’s Working Group. With the focus being on such a constantly changing region, it is certain that many more such sessions will be needed… and appreciated.

The spotlight was on Kosovars’ opinions about the present and the future when the Gallup Balkan Monitor Roadshow reached Prishtina at the end of March. With the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’s Besa Luzha moderating, the audience heard that Kosovo’s citizens are the most optimistic in the region. Gallup Europe CEO Robert Manchin presented survey results that showed 59% of all Kosovars thinking that economic conditions are improving and over half of respondents (53%) seeing the government’s performance as positive. These figures tend to show one side of the picture, however; only 10% of Kosovo Serbs think things are improving and just 1% are happy with the government.
As for peaceful co-existence, while roughly three-quarters of Kosovan Albanians think they could live peacefully with the Serbs, only 17% of Serbs feel they could co-exist with the Kosovo Albanians. During the debate, the Kosovo Foundation for Civil Society’s Iliriana Kaçaniku said that if you compared the European Commission’s negative progress reports in 2007 and 2008 with the positive results of the survey, you had to conclude that public opinion is not well informed about economic and political developments in the country. Also on the panel were Ylli Hoxa from the Foreign Policy Club and Valdete Idrizi from Community Building Mitrovica.

Despite “Montenegro: country of opportunities” being the title of the GBM roadshow event in Podgorica, several panellists had the impression that its citizens are too easily satisfied with life. Gallup’s Robert Manchin introduced the survey results, highlighting the fact that Montenegrins were generally optimistic, both in their views about the government’s performance and also about the country’s accession to the EU. However, noting the tolerance levels towards “corruption”, he reasoned that Montenegrins appear to feel that their government can do whatever it wants as long as the citizens are allowed the same level of latitude. The Institute of Alternative’s Stevo Muk argued that Montenegrins are losing out in the post-independence transition period. He felt they are too tolerant of inefficiencies – of all kinds – as they have not sufficiently defined their new status; they are leaning towards a consumer society but are not interested in defining the country’s future path. Despite the survey showing citizens to be relatively satisfied with life, “Vijesti” editor Nedjeljko Rudovic, could not understand that finding as households needed two salaries in order to be able to afford basic shopping for the week. He was also surprised that the majority trusted the government when almost half thought it was not doing enough to fight organised crime. Earlier Manchin had stated that Montenegrins have the highest level of tolerance (53%) towards citizens offering small gifts (to, for example, doctors or civil servants) in order to get things done. Focusing on that finding, the Center for Monitoring’s Zlatko Vujevic suggested a regular survey of attitudes towards corruption.
Deputy Prime Minister, Gordana Djurovic, however, saw lots of positives in the survey. She noted the high level of optimism in the country – since independence – and stressed the country’s “European perspective” shown in the results. Djurovic therefore asked for diplomatic representatives to report this level of “European” optimism to the institutions in Brussels.

With its title being “Tired of it all: BiH’s citizens are desperate for change”, the GBM roadshow stop in Sarajevo was never going to be plain sailing. After the EFB’s executive director Hedvig Morvai Horvat had introduced the panel, Gallup analyst Andrzej Pyrka presented the GBM results for BiH including the finding that its residents are among the least satisfied in the Western Balkans (61% see the country going in a bad direction and two-thirds feel the government is performing badly). On the positive side, fewer are migrating (61% are considering that step, down from 74% in 2006) and the citizens want greater cooperation between the Balkan countries. Pyrka also highlighted the dramatic disparity in views between the two BiH entities: Republika Srpska and the Federation.
On the panel, the University of Sarajevo’s Professor Zdravko Grebo questioned the survey’s reliability (as he felt people are not honest when questioned in such a situation) and the Directorate for European Integration’s Nedeljko Masleša thought domestic problems were slowing the EU accession process. UCL’s Neven Andjelić could see the “legacy of war” in the results and blamed the media for its failure to deliver the EU’s message to the BiH people. He also thought, however, that the EU was not sufficiently communicating the ideas behind the European project. With the EU, the media and the pollsters seemingly under attack from the panel, it looked like the BiH citizens would remain “desperate for change” for some time to come.

On the eve of Kosovo’s first birthday, the UK’s leading news magazine, The Economist, featured an article arguing that the ex-Serb province has confounded the sceptics by avoiding a new round of violence and an exodus of the Serb minority. Although the article acknowledged that Kosovo remained “poor” and had a “weak administration”, The Economist argued that the Kosovars were far from downcast. For evidence, it pointed to the recent survey by the European Fund for the Balkans and Gallup (the Gallup Balkan Monitor) that had shown that, among seven western Balkan ountries, Kosovo’s people were the most satisfied.

Read the full article. (external)

Macedonia was in the spotlight at the latest Gallup Balkan Monitor event – “Macedonia: Between hope and reality” – held in Skopje on March 17 and moderated by Forum CSRD’s Gordon Georgiev. The survey results, presented by Gallup Europe Research Analyst Andrzej Pyrka, showed that almost half (46%) of the country’s residents are dissatisfied with their lives. This made Macedonia the country with the highest number of discontented citizens, just ahead of Serbia (42%) and BiH (38%). Macedonians also fear a new armed conflict in the region; with one in three citizens being concerned about an outbreak of violence, it is the only country in the Western Balkans where more than a quarter of the population feel that way.
During the panel debate, Professor Abdulmenaf Bexheti of the Southeast European University (SEEU) pointed out that while Macedonians were relatively satisfied with their government (47%), they were not happy about the state of the economy (22%). He felt that this could be due to the government’s success at promoting its own image. On the subject of the EU, the Institute for Democracy’s Vladimir Misev argued that the widespread support for membership (66%) was not due to any particular understanding about the Union but was rather based on either a respondent’s lack of knowledge or lack of firm feelings on the matter.
On the issue of the country’s name change to allow NATO and EU membership, the survey showed that only 3% of ethnic Macedonians agreed as opposed to 69% of ethnic Albanian respondents. Professor Bexhati and the SEEU’s Professor Jeton Shasivari both criticised the government’s efforts to protect the country’s name, referring to this as a “fetish” created by local politicians and intellectuals. Returning to the Macedonians’ dissatisfaction with life, the survey showed that this is even higher among native Macedonians (49%) than Macedonian Albanians (33%). Panellists referred to this as a “paradox” as unemployment is higher among the latter.

Speaking in Zagreb at a Gallup Balkan Monitor event – “Croatia: Tired of EU Reforms?” on February 6, Gallup Europe Managing Director Robert Manchin said Croatia’s support for the EU was fading. He felt this was typical for countries before EU accession as it was the impact of “painful reforms.” Presenting the survey results, Manchin explained that Croats identified strongly with their country, less so with Europe and very little with the Balkans. He felt that Croats tended to see their future partners as being in western Europe.

Hedvig Morvai Horvat, the European Fund for the Balkans (EFB) Executive Director explained the aims of the joint EFB/Gallup project ahead of a lively panel debate. Croatia’s State Secretary for European Integration Davor Bozinovic argued that Croatia had time to complete the final three negotiating chapters – the administration of justice, fundamental rights and market competition – while Vesna Pusic, chairperson of the national committee for monitoring accession negotiations felt that reform of the judiciary was the priority.

Croats themselves, however, do not seem to be so infatuated with the EU as they once were. The Gallup Balkan Monitor survey results showed that approximately equal numbers of Croats supported and opposed membership (29% and 26%, respectively), while almost 4 in 10 remained firmly on the fence (38% could not decide). Also speaking at the event, one of the series being held throughout the Western Balkans, Zarko Puhovski, professor at the Faculty of Philosophy, University of Zagreb, doubted the warmth of Brussels’ welcome for Croatia: the country cared more about entering the EU than the Union did about admitting Croatia. The survey actually showed that less than half of Croats felt they would be welcomed by the EU (46%), as opposed to 82% of Kosovo respondents and 55% of Serbs.

Manchin said it was evident that Croatia was a leader in regional EU integration, even though Slovenia was now being perceived as being more hostile. Pollsters have reasoned that this is due to the ongoing maritime border dispute sapping respondent’s enthusiasm. Summing up, Manchin called on European institutions to take responsibility if indeed they wanted to support the integration of the Balkan states in the EU.

The GBM’s first “official” stop was in Belgrade, with the format following what was to become a familiar pattern: the European Fund for the Balkans’ (EFB’s) executive director Hedvig Morvai Horvat introducing the panel, followed by a member of the Gallup team presenting the GBM results. The highlight in Serbia was the excellent media coverage, typified by BLIC and Radio Srbija. There were also five TV crews present, including the major Serb broadcaster – Pink TV.
After the results presentation by Gallup’s Andrzej Pyrka, local political analyst Milan Nikolić argued that the results painted a realistic picture of the Western Balkans and that he foresaw over a quarter of million Serbs losing their jobs in 2009. Nikolić was critical of the media, as he felt they focused on scandals rather than the key issues. Regional Cooperation Council Head Jelica Minic claimed that the financial crisis partly accounted for the pessimistic survey results and that it would lead to the countries of the region showing more cooperation. She could find little support for her view, however. The Deputy Director of the Serbian EU Integration Office, Srđan Majstorović, stated that Commission surveys gave a more positive view of the situation and that the Serb residents were supportive of the accession reforms.
Questions from the floor showed a desire for more positive indicators (and hence new questions in the next wave), such as “what has been achieved in the past years?” and “what makes people stay in the country?” Food for thought then for the GBM team as moved to Zagreb.

The GBM’s road show’s first port of call was an “Expert Seminar” in Istanbul, an event jointly organised by the CEP, the Slovenian government agency for Balkan development, and Istanbul Kültür Üniversitesi. Attended by representatives of the business world, trade ministries and supra-national organisations (the European Commission, EFTA, CEFTA, the OECD etc.), the mood of the event was that the region urgently needed more trade and cooperation between the Balkan neighbours. The economic and political situations, and hence confidence on the ground, were all seen to be deteriorating. The overall impression of the GBM team, who presented the survey results, was that they fully supported the need for more collaboration between the countries of the Western Balkans.

 

It was standing room only at the launch of the Gallup Balkan Monitor at the Résidence Palace in Brussels. Over 200 people heard a lively debate that touched on many of the findings of the report.

Chaired by EPC Communications Director Jacki Davis, the debate gave a flavor of the mass of information contained in the Western Balkans survey. With barely a third of Croats considering EU accession to be “a good thing,” Gallup Managing Director Robert Manchin pointed out that Croats were particularly attached to their country. For his part, Giuliano Amato, former Italian Prime Minister said the people of the Western Balkans had to be offered something concrete in return for carrying out the EU-required reforms. Among many suggestions was a relaxation of the EU’s visa policies towards the western Balkan countries. The panel also included the leading Kosovo daily – Koha Ditore – editor, Veton Surroi and Serbia’s former Foreign Minister Goran Svilanovic.

Prior to the event, Knut Neumayer, Programme Director of ERSTE Foundation (one of the partner foundations in the European Fund for the Balkans), presented the 2008 GBM Summary of Findings to Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn.

The Gallup Balkan Monitor’s poll results and implications were discussed by a distinguished panel at the Résidence Palace, Brussels (November 17). The event, entitled “Public opinion in the Balkans – between hope and disenchantment”, examined the Monitor’s findings on how citizens feel about EU accession, good governance, Kosovo’s independence and the Balkan citizens’ desire to emigrate. The panel included Gallup Europe Managing Director Robert Manchin, former Prime Minister of Italy and former Chairman of the International Commission on the Balkans Giuliano Amato, Editor of the leading Kosovo daily newspaper Koha Ditore, Veton Surroi and Serbia’s former Foreign Minister Goran Svilanovic. The dialogue, organised by the European Policy Centre (EPC), in cooperation with the European Fund for the Balkans, was chaired by EPC Communications Director Jacki Davis.